In the current market scenario, natural rubber prices have remained stable and latex prices have shown a slight decrease. This situation could present a temporary opportunity for those considering purchasing these products, especially ahead of potential price adjustments. While some investors may choose to sell to capitalize on the recent year-end rally, the overall view for 2024 is of a market with limited supply and steady demand, driven largely by strong global auto sales. This context suggests that, for those looking to invest in natural rubber or latex, this could be a strategic time to consider a purchase.
The global supply of natural rubber faces challenges due to declining production in Thailand and Indonesia, two major producers. This reduction is causing prices to rise and raising concerns about possible shortages.
MIXED ECONOMIC SIGNALS IN CHINA
China shows variable economic results. While the official indicator indicates a contraction in the industry, the Caixin group's private measurement indicates an improvement. The construction sector, in particular, is showing signs of recovery after a difficult period.
OPTIMISM IN THE US ECONOMY
The US economic outlook for 2024 is largely positive, with most economists anticipating a "soft landing" that avoids a recession. However, there are signs that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates high for longer, different than what the market expects.
INCREASE IN CAR SALES WORLDWIDE
Car sales are increasing globally, with notable growth in the European Union and the United Kingdom. Additionally, China is establishing itself as a leader in electric vehicle manufacturing, with BYD overtaking Tesla as the world's largest producer.
Movement in the Suez Canal is estimated to have been reduced by 25% at the end of December due to attacks in the Red Sea. The drought in the Panama Canal also complicates global routes: by February it is estimated that there will only be half the number of places left for the crossing that there were before the drought. This is equivalent to a loss of capacity. For this reason, rates in general adjust upwards, although with strong differences between the different routes.