Trump gave new signs that he could soften his trade policy, possibly driven by the recent negative impact on the markets. This week, he stated that he is considering substantially reducing, though not completely eliminating, tariffs on China, which provoked a positive reaction in the financial markets.
However, rubber prices remain well below their closing levels in March. This is explained, on the one hand, by the fact that tariffs on the automotive sector appear to have a greater chance of being maintained, and on the other, by the expectation of an increase in global production in the coming months.
In this context, we expect stable or slightly declining prices in the second half of the year, although a short-term rebound is not ruled out if global conditions improve. The outlook, however, remains highly uncertain.
The natural rubber market still shows no clear signs of recovery. Although there has been a slight rebound, prices remain below March levels. This is due to subdued demand in China, affected by tire tariffs, which remain above 10% and create uncertainty for sales to the United States. Furthermore, an increase in global production is expected in the second quarter, both internationally and in China, amid high inventories at major ports. According to Sunsirs, the Chinese market could continue its negative trend in the medium term, although there is no clear consensus on price developments.