Investors decided to take profits from last week's price rise, which led to a price correction, losing much of what they had gained in previous days. In principle, a correction was expected given the rally of the previous week, although the declines were somewhat greater than expected. For now, we continue to expect high prices in the short term, especially if the good economic data from China is confirmed.
Correction in prices:
Chinese economy on the rise:
Apparently, China's economic activity continues to perform better than expected. Adding to the good data from the first two months is the survey carried out by China Beige Book (a consulting firm specialized in monitoring information from China), which predicts a good level of economic activity in March. Industry and consumption drive activity. The real estate sector continues to be the weak point.
The outlook for the latex glove market also improves. Demand continues to rise and stocks are reduced, so Top Glove predicts it will return to profit within two quarters.
Production alerts:
Regarding production, there is a weather alert for storms in Thailand for the end of March. On the other hand, Malaysia's production is beginning to slow its decline. The government seeks to reverse the declining trend by providing incentives for idle areas to be put into production.
Historical gap:
The gap between latex and natural rubber (TSR-20) is at the lowest levels in the last decade. In previous assessments it has already reached this value, but without sustaining it for long.
Trends in freight rates and geopolitical agreements: Perspectives and changes in maritime transportation
The prospect of a slight decline in freight rates remains. China and Russia reach an agreement with the Houthis so that their ships will not be attacked. This may mean shorter travel times and greater available capacity, although expectations that China will “intercede” for other nations are also reduced.
The Panama Canal increases daily transits to 27 due to a slight improvement in the water level.