A positive week for rubber and natural latex

The last week has been very good for the natural rubber and latex markets, with price increases of approximately 4% and 2% respectively. This increase is due to buyers anticipating a possible global shortage in the coming months. Despite China's efforts to stimulate domestic consumption, government policies have shown some inconsistency, affecting investor confidence.

Supply concerns raise prices

The expectation of a rubber shortage, with a projected deficit of 1 million tonnes for the March to May period, has boosted prices globally. This situation is expected to continue until production recovers from August 2024, according to analysis by the consulting firm WhatsnextRubber.

Distrust in the chinese market

Investors are losing confidence in China, reflecting a drop in foreign investment, marking a net outflow of capital for the first time in decades. Although the Chinese government has implemented measures such as reducing interest rates and promoting greater legal certainty for private companies, its efforts to increase state participation in key sectors and changes in the methodology for measuring economic indicators have generated uncertainty. .

Interest rate expectations

Hope for an early drop in interest rates dissipates, the Federal Reserve (FED) has indicated that it will keep interest rates stable until a consistent reduction in inflation is observed.

Optimism in the automotive sector
Despite a slight slowdown from the previous year, global auto sales are expected to grow 3% this year, with a particular boost from electric vehicles in Asia. This suggests that although we face challenges, the growth trend in the automotive sector continues.

Tension in the red sea: impact on shipping and future prospects

Recently, the Houthis sank a merchant ship in the Red Sea, leading to the evacuation of its entire crew.

This event has intensified concerns about security in one of the world's most important shipping routes. In response to growing insecurity, Europe has activated EUNAVFOR operation Aspides with the aim of protecting ships sailing through the Red Sea.

This measure seeks to ensure the safe transit of goods in this critical area.
Although specialists anticipate that freight rates will remain high during the month of March due to the current situation, a downward trend is expected in the following months. The main reason is the introduction of new capacity to the market, which could alleviate pressures on global transportation costs.