Prices continue to decline, reaching their lowest level since November. As we have been warning, the price peak in December could only be explained by a critical supply situation. January began without major complications for producers, and the expectation of a more typical year should drive prices down further.
Global shipping rates from China increased by 0.8% this week, but this was solely due to a sharp rise in routes to the US (+7.5%). The expectation of a strike led to earlier orders and increased demand. However, dockworkers reportedly reached an agreement, which will prevent the strike and further price hikes that could have affected other routes if the conflict had escalated. On the other hand, with the demand peak from mid-2024 now behind us, congestion is easing, and shipping reliability is beginning to improve. Although still at low levels, this trend could help stabilize freight rates in the medium term