Prices and market balance

The price of latex showed constant growth during February, while natural rubber (TSR20) did the same to a lesser extent. The price gap between both products is close to reaching its minimum in the last five years. This increase in prices is attributed to the expectation of a shortage of supply in the first four months of the year, estimated at around 1 million tons. On the demand side, there are mixed signals: investor concerns about China are offset by strong industry performance in North America and an increase in global automotive sales.

Stagnant rubber supply with deficit forecast:

The supply of rubber, according to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC), stagnated in the first two months, anticipating a production deficit in the coming months due to the early start of the "wintering season", a period in which reduces the productivity of plantations. Recall that the accumulation of insufficient inventories in the last quarter of 2023 may not compensate for this shortfall, suggesting a possible continued increase in quotes.

Negative activity indicators in China:

Activity indicators in China for February reflect mainly negative results, largely influenced by the lunar new year festivities. However, property sales continue in a worrying state, showing a challenging outlook in this sector.

Price ratio between Latex and TSR-20:

The price ratio between latex and TSR-20 is already at levels that are unsustainable in the medium term, so the outlook for the coming months should be a little better for natural rubber than for latex.