War, trade and freight: the rubber market in a tense global scenario

🛢️ Iran–Israel tension: oil prices rise and may affect the rubber market

In recent days, Israel launched an airstrike against Iran aimed at halting its nuclear development and ballistic capabilities.
This immediately pushed oil prices up — from around USD 65 to USD 74 per barrel by the end of the week.

The increase reflects heightened geopolitical risk, with markets pricing in a premium due to potential disruptions in oil supply.
While this could be a short-term spike, if the conflict escalates, prices may again approach USD 80 per barrel.

Meanwhile, OPEC continues ramping up production, which may help balance the market to some extent.

For rubber, the impact could be felt on two fronts:

On one hand, logistics costs are likely to increase due to higher oil prices.
On the other, as synthetic rubber is a petroleum derivative, its prices may also rise — potentially impacting the competitiveness and pricing of natural rubber, albeit to a lesser extent.

It remains to be seen whether this cost increase can offset the downward pressure from rising global natural rubber production.

Natural rubber and latex prices | In USD per 100Kg

🌐 China–U.S.: trade deal reached, but high tariffs remain TARIFFS

China and the United States have reached a new trade agreement, pausing the tariff war but keeping duties at elevated levels:55% for U.S. imports from China10% for Chinese imports from the U.S.As part of the deal, China will lift restrictions on rare earths exports, and the U.S. will ease controls on chips and strategic technologies.In market terms, natural rubber prices in China are expected to fall due to increased supply and high inventory levels.

🚢 Signs of decline after months of increases MARITIME FREIGHT

According to Linerlytica, freight rates between the U.S. and China may have peaked.With the addition of new cargo capacity, rates are expected to gradually decline in the coming weeks.Some routes may still see short-term adjustments, but the overall market trend points to stabilization.The incentive to advance imports remains active until the new China–U.S. agreement is formally signed.

Freight, Prices, latex

War, trade and freight: the rubber market in a tense global scenario

🛢️ Iran–Israel tension: oil prices rise and may affect the rubber market

In recent days, Israel launched an airstrike against Iran aimed at halting its nuclear development and ballistic capabilities.
This immediately pushed oil prices up — from around USD 65 to USD 74 per barrel by the end of the week.

The increase reflects heightened geopolitical risk, with markets pricing in a premium due to potential disruptions in oil supply.
While this could be a short-term spike, if the conflict escalates, prices may again approach USD 80 per barrel.

Meanwhile, OPEC continues ramping up production, which may help balance the market to some extent.

For rubber, the impact could be felt on two fronts:

On one hand, logistics costs are likely to increase due to higher oil prices.

On the other, as synthetic rubber is a petroleum derivative, its prices may also rise — potentially impacting the competitiveness and pricing of natural rubber, albeit to a lesser extent.

It remains to be seen whether this cost increase can offset the downward pressure from rising global natural rubber production.

Natural rubber and latex prices | In USD per 100Kg

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War, trade and freight: the rubber market in a tense global scenario

🛢️ Iran–Israel tension: oil prices rise and may affect the rubber market

In recent days, Israel launched an airstrike against Iran aimed at halting its nuclear development and ballistic capabilities.This immediately pushed oil prices up — from around USD 65 to USD 74 per barrel by the end of the week.

The increase reflects heightened geopolitical risk, with markets pricing in a premium due to potential disruptions in oil supply.While this could be a short-term spike, if the conflict escalates, prices may again approach USD 80 per barrel.

Meanwhile, OPEC continues ramping up production, which may help balance the market to some extent.

For rubber, the impact could be felt on two fronts:

On one hand, logistics costs are likely to increase due to higher oil prices.

On the other, as synthetic rubber is a petroleum derivative, its prices may also rise — potentially impacting the competitiveness and pricing of natural rubber, albeit to a lesser extent.

It remains to be seen whether this cost increase can offset the downward pressure from rising global natural rubber production.

Natural rubber and latex prices | In USD per 100Kg

Like it? Share it:

Submit a comment

You may also like

China's economy boosts rubber demand and revises its 2025 outlook

U.S. Tariffs: What is the impact and why is it hitting rubber so hard?

How the Rubber Market Started in August

In recent days, Israel launched an airstrike against Iran aimed at halting its nuclear development and ballistic capabilities.
This immediately pushed oil prices up — from around USD 65 to USD 74 per barrel by the end of the week.

The increase reflects heightened geopolitical risk, with markets pricing in a premium due to potential disruptions in oil supply.
While this could be a short-term spike, if the conflict escalates, prices may again approach USD 80 per barrel.