.png?width=3000&height=1023&name=Logo%20Alrubber%20Color-01%20(4).png)
With inflation more contained than expected in July and the labor market beginning to show signs of cooling, all indications are that the Federal Reserve will resume rate cuts in September. This expectation led to a 1.2% depreciation of the Dollar Index since late July, boosting commodity prices. Lower rates not only reduce financing costs and encourage investment but also drive demand and improve the competitiveness of U.S. exports, creating a more favorable scenario for the global market.
Strong automotive demandAlthough natural rubber inventories in China remain high, they began to show a slight decline in August, according to Sunsirs data. This trend is reinforced by solid demand: in July, vehicle sales grew 14.7% year-over-year, in line with the previous month. Momentum continues despite a slowdown in passenger car sales and the impact of price wars among dealerships, which create uncertainty. For now, the automotive sector remains the engine sustaining the rubber market, supporting its recovery after the correction seen at the end of July.
Just hours before the initial truce was set to expire, President Trump signed an executive order extending by 90 days —until November 10— the implementation of a tariff hike from 30% to 145% on Chinese imports. The decision aims to give more room for negotiations, which had stalled after partial progress made in London last June. At that meeting, China had agreed to facilitate rare earth exports while the U.S. would maintain base tariffs. The new extension confirms that both sides intend to continue talks, and that in the short term, the risk of such drastic measures as initially threatened remains low.
Maritime freight rates continue their downward trend in line with weaker demand for international cargo. According to Sea Intelligence, in the first four months of the year imports through the 10 largest U.S. ports grew 15.6% year-over-year, driven by early purchases and inventory build-ups amid trade risks. However, in the following months, volumes began to fall by more than 8% year-over-year, revealing a cycle of overreaction followed by contraction. This pattern has been seen in previous trade tension cycles, but the current magnitude suggests a deeper impact on freight rates for the remainder of the year.
Submit a comment