New global tariffs: implications for natural rubber

Last Saturday, the U.S. activated a new tariff package affecting almost every country, with increases ranging from 10% to 50%, calculated based on bilateral trade deficits.

Only a few strategic sectors — such as energy and pharmaceuticals — were exempted. Southeast Asian countries, key players in rubber production, were the most affected. China, the world’s largest buyer, now faces a total tariff of 54%.
The European Union saw a 20% increase, while most Latin American countries received the minimum rate of 10%. The initial reaction was a sharp drop in financial assets and commodities. A contraction in global trade is expected due to rising costs, price distortions, and forced supplier relocations.

The effect is immediate: major exporters face new barriers, and consumers are cutting back demand. In addition, natural rubber is losing competitiveness against synthetic alternatives.

The global economic slowdown and falling oil prices are putting downward pressure on freight rates. While the adjustment is gradual, a steady decline in logistics costs is expected, especially on transpacific routes.

The tariff gap between Asia and Latin America may create short-term trade opportunities with the U.S. However, globally, increased competition in other markets, margin pressure, and defensive currency moves are expected.