According to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries, global natural rubber production is expected to grow by only 0.3% this year. Thailand shows a slight recovery, but Indonesia continues to reduce its production. The limited supply could sustain upward pressure on prices.
Crude oil prices, which influence the costs of natural rubber and transportation, have fallen to their lowest level in three years due to high inventories in the U.S. and OPEC’s decision to maintain production. This drop could provide some relief to logistical costs, a much-needed break in an industry where freight remains a constant challenge.
Labor disputes in Europe are worsening port congestion. It is estimated that 8.4% of the global fleet is immobilized, which could lead to rate increases on certain routes in March. For Asia-South America, overcapacity might minimize the impact, although surcharges could be applied in restricted access points.
The United States has imposed a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, although its implementation has been delayed for some products. Meanwhile, China faces an additional 10%, accumulating a 20% increase for the year. Canada and China have responded with their own tariffs.
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