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In August, China’s economy showed signs of cooling, with weaker growth in industrial output and retail consumption. The ongoing real estate crisis also weighs on investor confidence. In response, the government launched a 19-point plan focused mainly on the services sector, limiting its direct impact on rubber demand. At the same time, it set an ambitious goal for the automotive sector: 32.3 million vehicle sales in 2025, of which 15.5 million are expected to be New Energy Vehicles (NEVs), including electric and hybrid models.
The U.S. Federal Reserve began a monetary easing process in response to a cooling labor market. This measure encourages investment and tends to push commodity prices higher, including rubber, by weakening the dollar. However, the context is mixed: U.S. inflation rose to 2.9% in August, the highest level since January, raising questions about the sustainability of the rate cuts. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank left its rates unchanged, widening the policy divergence between the two economies and increasing pressure on the dollar.
Production in the main rubber-producing countries was severely affected by storms and floods, reducing global supply. The recurrence of such weather events strengthens expectations of a tighter market. Not all data, however, was negative: Malaysia reported a 36.7% month-on-month increase in July production, while Côte d’Ivoire boosted its exports by 14.4%. On the other hand, Cambodia’s exports fell 12% in the first eight months of the year.
The upcoming Golden Week in China is already leading to predictions of further blank sailings by carriers, likely causing logistical delays. In terms of freight rates, transpacific routes to the U.S. rose 20–25% in September, driven by General Rate Increases (GRIs). By contrast, Asia–Europe routes saw a 10–12% decline due to excess vessel capacity.
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